This is not a political statement. This is a statement in math. There is little chance Obama is not our president come January 20th.Looking at the map above which reflects the current electoral map makeup, you will see that Obama has 251 electoral votes which are either solidified or very likely leaning towards him. McCain has 227 electoral votes solidified or likely leaning. 60 votes are a dead-heat tossup, with 270 votes needed to clinch the presidency. In other words, Obama needs only 19 toss-up state points to clinch the presidency. If Obama does any of the following he essentially clinches the election:
-win Ohio (20 votes)
Or
-win Michigan (17 votes)
Or
-win Nevada (5) and Colorado (9) and New Mexico (5)
McCain must win both Ohio and Michigan to have a chance. The chances of McCain eek-ing out not one, but both of these states are just not plausible. These are two big industrial states which were dead heats in the 2004 Bush/Kerry election:
Ohio – Kerry 49% vs. Bush 51%
Michigan – Kerry 51% vs. Bush 48%
The presidential race will come down to Ohio and Michigan, with McCain having to sweep both.
How did this happen?
With Iowa and Virginia now heavily leaning towards Obama (Bush carried both in 2004), those 20 lost electoral votes are forcing McCain to have to win both Michigan and Ohio (Bush only won Ohio in 2004).
McCain’s road to the white house isn’t impossible. But it is very very unlikely.
1 comments:
The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn't have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote -- that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided "battleground" states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.
Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.
The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes — 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
susan
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