This is not a political statement. This is a statement in math. There is little chance Obama is not our president come January 20th.Looking at the map above which reflects the current electoral map makeup, you will see that Obama has 251 electoral votes which are either solidified or very likely leaning towards him. McCain has 227 electoral votes solidified or likely leaning. 60 votes are a dead-heat tossup, with 270 votes needed to clinch the presidency. In other words, Obama needs only 19 toss-up state points to clinch the presidency. If Obama does any of the following he essentially clinches the election:
-win Ohio (20 votes)
Or
-win Michigan (17 votes)
Or
-win Nevada (5) and Colorado (9) and New Mexico (5)
McCain must win both Ohio and Michigan to have a chance. The chances of McCain eek-ing out not one, but both of these states are just not plausible. These are two big industrial states which were dead heats in the 2004 Bush/Kerry election:
Ohio – Kerry 49% vs. Bush 51%
Michigan – Kerry 51% vs. Bush 48%
The presidential race will come down to Ohio and Michigan, with McCain having to sweep both.
How did this happen?
With Iowa and Virginia now heavily leaning towards Obama (Bush carried both in 2004), those 20 lost electoral votes are forcing McCain to have to win both Michigan and Ohio (Bush only won Ohio in 2004).
McCain’s road to the white house isn’t impossible. But it is very very unlikely.
